Quantifying rapid permafrost thaw with computer vision and graph theory

With the Earth’s climate rapidly warming, the Arctic represents one of the most vulnerable regions to environmental change. Permafrost, as a key element of the Arctic system, stores vast amounts of organic carbon that can be microbially decomposed into the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 upon thaw. Extensive thawing of these permafrost soils therefore has potentially substantial consequences to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. In addition, thaw of ice-rich permafrost lastingly alters the surface topography and thus the hydrology. Fires represent an important disturbance in boreal permafrost regions and increasingly also in tundra regions as they combust the vegetation and upper organic soil layers that usually provide protective insulation to the permafrost below. Field studies and local remote sensing studies suggest that fire disturbances may trigger rapid permafrost thaw, with consequences often already observable in the first years post-disturbance. In polygonal ice-wedge landscapes, this becomes most prevalent through melting ice wedges and degrading troughs. The further these ice wedges degrade; the more troughs will likely connect and build an extensive hydrological network with changing patterns and degrees of connectivity that influences hydrology and runoff throughout large regions. While subsiding troughs over melting ice wedges may host new ponds, an increasing connectivity may also subsequently lead to more drainage of ponds, which in turn can limit further thaw and help stabilize the landscape. Whereas fire disturbances may accelerate the initiation of this process, the general warming of permafrost observed across the Arctic will eventually result in widespread degradation of polygonal landscapes. To quantify the changes in such dynamic landscapes over large regions, remote sensing data offers a valuable resource. However, considering the vast and ever-growing volumes of Earth observation data available, highly automated methods are needed that allow extracting information on the geomorphic state and changes over time of ice-wedge trough networks. In this study, we investigate these changing landscapes and their environmental implications in fire scars in Northern and Western Alaska. We developed a computer vision algorithm to automatically extract ice-wedge polygonal networks and the microtopography of the degrading troughs from high-resolution, airborne laserscanning-based digital terrain models (1 m spatial resolution; full-waveform Riegl Q680i LiDAR sensor). To derive information on the availability of surface water, we used optical and near-infrared aerial imagery at spatial resolutions of up to 5 cm captured by the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS) developed by DLR. We represent the networks as graphs (a concept from the computer sciences to describe complex networks) and apply methods from graph theory to describe and quantify hydrological network characteristics of the changing landscape. Due to a lack of historical very-high-resolution data, we cannot investigate a dense time series of a single representative study area on the evolution of the microtopographic and hydrologic network, but rather leverage the possibilities of a space-for-time substitution. We thus investigate terrain models and multispectral data from 2019 and 2021 of ten study areas located in ten fire scars of different ages (up to 120 years between date of disturbance and date of data acquisition). With this approach, we can infer past and future states of degradation from the currently prevailing spatial patterns and show how this type of disturbed landscape evolves over time. Representing such polygonal landscapes as graphs and reducing large amounts of data into few quantifiable metrics, supports integration of results into i.e., numerical models and thus largely facilitates the understanding of the underlying complex processes of GHG emissions from permafrost thaw. We highlight these extensive possibilities but also illustrate the limitations encountered in the study that stem from a reduced availability and accessibility to pan-Arctic very-high-resolution Earth observation datasets

A Quantitative Graph-Based Approach to Monitoring Ice-Wedge Trough Dynamics in Polygonal Permafrost Landscapes

In response to increasing Arctic temperatures, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowlands, polygonal ice wedges are especially prone to degradation. Melting of ice wedges results in deepening troughs and the transition from low-centered to high-centered ice-wedge polygons. This process has important implications for surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such troughs determines the rate of drainage for these lowland landscapes. In this study, we present a comprehensive, modular, and highly automated workflow to extract, to represent, and to analyze remotely sensed ice-wedge polygonal trough networks as a graph (i.e., network structure). With computer vision methods, we efficiently extract the trough locations as well as their geomorphometric information on trough depth and width from high-resolution digital elevation models and link these data within the graph. Further, we present and discuss the benefits of graph analysis algorithms for characterizing the erosional development of such thaw-affected landscapes. Based on our graph analysis, we show how thaw subsidence has progressed between 2009 and 2019 following burning at the Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska, USA. We observed a considerable increase in the number of discernible troughs within the study area, while simultaneously the number of disconnected networks decreased from 54 small networks in 2009 to only six considerably larger disconnected networks in 2019. On average, the width of the troughs has increased by 13.86%, while the average depth has slightly decreased by 10.31%. Overall, our new automated approach allows for monitoring ice-wedge dynamics in unprecedented spatial detail, while simultaneously reducing the data to quantifiable geometric measures and spatial relationships.BMBF PermaRiskNational Science FoundationPeer Reviewe

From Images to Hydrologic Networks - Understanding the Arctic Landscape with Graphs

Remote sensing-based Earth Observation plays an important role in assessing environmental changes throughout our planet. As an image-heavy domain, the evaluation of the data strongly focuses on statistical and pixel-based spatial analysis methods. However, considering the complexity of our Earth system, there are some environmental structures and dependencies that are not possible to accurately describe with these traditional image analysis approaches. One example for such a limitation is the representation of (spatial) networks and their characteristics. In this study, we thus propose a computer vision approach that enables the representation of semantic information gained from images as graphs. As an example, we investigate digital terrain models of Arctic permafrost landscapes with its very characteristic polygonal patterned ground. These regular patterns, which are clearly visible in high-resolution image and elevation data, are formed by subsurface ice bodies that are very vulnerable to rising temperatures in a warming Arctic. Observing these networks’ topologies and metrics in space and time with graph analysis thus allows insights into the landscape’s complex geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology and therefore helps to quantify how they interact with climate change. We show that results extracted with this analytical and highly automated approach are in line with those gathered from other manual studies or from manual validation. Thus, with this approach, we introduce a method that, for the first time, enables upscaling of such terrain and network analysis to potentially pan-Arctic scales where collecting in-situ field data is strongly limited

The evolution of ice-wedge polygon networks in tundra fire scars

Abstract In response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in the Arctic, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowland landscapes, polygonal ice wedges are especially vulnerable, and their melting induces widespread subsidence triggering the transition from low-centered (LCP) to high-centered polygons (HCP) by forming degrading troughs. This process has an important impact on surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such trough networks determines the rate of drainage of an entire landscape (Liljedahl et al., 2016). While scientists have observed this degradation trend throughout large domains in the polygonal patterned Arctic landscape over timescales of multiple decades, it is especially evident in disturbed areas such as fire scars (Jones et al., 2015). Here, wildfires removed the insulating organic soil layer. We can therefore observe the LCP-to-HCP transition within only several years. Until now, studies on quantifying trough connectivity have been limited to local field studies and sparse time series only. With high-resolution Earth observation data, a more comprehensive analysis is possible. However, when considering the vast and ever-growing volumes of data generated, highly automated and scalable methods are needed that allow scientists to extract information on the geomorphic state and on changes over time of ice-wedge trough networks. In this study, we combine very-high-resolution (VHR) aerial imagery and comprehensive databases of segmented polygons derived from VHR optical satellite imagery (Witharana et al., 2018) to investigate the changing polygonal ground landscapes and their environmental implications in fire scars in Northern and Western Alaska. Leveraging the automated and scalable nature of our recently introduced approach (Rettelbach et al., 2021), we represent the polygon networks as graphs (a concept from computer science to describe complex networks) and use graph metrics to describe the state of these (hydrological) trough networks. Due to a lack of historical data, we cannot investigate a dense time series of a single representative study area on the evolution of the network, but rather leverage the possibilities of a space-for-time substitution. Thus, we focus on data from multiple fire scars of different ages (up to 120 years between date of disturbance and date of acquisition). With our approach, we might infer past and future states of degradation from the currently prevailing spatial patterns showing how this type of disturbed landscape evolves over space and time. It further allows scientists to gain insights into the complex geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology of landscapes, thus helping to quantify how they interact with climate change

Global-scale mapping of periglacial landforms on Earth and Mars

We are developing a machine learning system based on high-resolution images of Earth and Mars for classifying periglacial landscape features, detecting their temporal changes, and assessing their global distribution as well as their potential as indicator for climate conditions and changes. Earth periglacial landscape phenomena such as ice wedge polygons are closely linked to repeated freeze-thaw cycles, and the presence of water and ice in the subsurface. Ice wedge polygons, which are widespread in Arctic lowlands, constitute an important indicator for ground ice content. Ground ice makes permafrost vulnerable to thaw and subsidence, thus leading to massive changes in topography, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes [1]. Moreover, variations in permafrost extent due to climate warming in Earth’s polar regions cause changes in the aforementioned periglacial features. On Mars, similar young landforms such as ice-wedge polygons and debris flows are found [2]. Large volumes of excess ice are known to exist in the shallow subsurface of mid-latitude regions [3]. A major debate focusses on whether similar freeze-thaw cycles thawed this excess ice in the geologically recent past. If true, this would be conflicting with the current Martian environment, which ostensibly prevents the generation of liquid water, and would therefore have implications for the recent hydrologic past of Mars. With liquid water also intrinsically linked to the climate evolution and the potential habitability of Mars, the investigation of the aforementioned landforms becomes essential. Moreover, the present-day surface of Mars experiences changes linked to H2O and CO2 ice, which are unlikely to be the result of aqueous processes [4, 5]. Detecting the magnitude and timing of these changes would enable the estimation of the related process rates [6, 7] and the testing of hypotheses regarding the formation mechanism. Quantification of periglacial features on regional- to global-scale has not been done for either of the planets so far. These features as well as their changes can be tracked with high resolution remote sensing across large regions using big data approaches of image processing, classification and feature detection. For Earth the detection and tracking of periglacial features would provide invaluable insights into periglacial and permafrost dynamics as well as in the potential for permafrost vulnerabilities to thaw in a warming world. For Mars, determining the distribution of such landforms, as well as the spatial relationship to each other and to external parameters such as topography, would provide clues for their formation and thus elucidate the role of liquid water in the recent past. The key task is to map selected features across large regions using large high-resolution datasets, which makes automated methods for detection and classification of landforms essential. We are developing a powerful machine learning system that will identify the most appropriate image features for each landform. It will be trained on images for different cases of periglacial landforms. Ice wedge polygons are morphologically very similar on both planets, which besides the opportunity to conduct analogue studies, also provides the possibility to combine training datasets from both planets. Our system will be validated by manual identification of periglacial features on images, as well as with the existing validation datasets of both planets. Our project is exploring the potential for a machine learning system to detect periglacial phenomena by exploiting big datasets of large regions of Earth and Mars. The resulting global-scale mapping of ice wedge polygons will provide insights regarding the permafrost vulnerabilities to changing climates on Earth, as well as about the recent role of liquid water on Mars. The former are linked to life and biogeochemical processes on Earth, while the latter to the evolution of climate and potential habitability of Mars

Super-high-resolution Earth observation datasets of North American permafrost landscapes

While temperatures are increasing on the global scale, the Arctic regions are especially vulnerable to this changing climate and landscapes underlain by permafrost experience increased thaw and degradation. The enhanced warming of organic-rich frozen ground can have severe consequences on infrastructure and ecosystems and is projected to become a highly relevant driver of greenhouse gas fluxes into the atmosphere. Degrading permafrost landscapes occur extensively in vast areas of the North American Arctic, directly affecting communities and ecosystems. To identify and quantify these widespread degradation phenomena over vast areas, we require highest-resolution Earth observation dataset that we collect during aerial imaging campaigns. We here report on observations and first results from three airborne campaigns in 2018, 2019 and 2021. We performed large-scale monitoring of permafrost-affected areas in northern Canada and Alaska, focusing on sites that experienced disturbances in the past or recently. This included sites with vulnerable settlements, coastal erosion, thaw slumping, lake expansion and drainage, ice-wedge degradation and thaw subsidence, fire scars, pingos, methane seeps, and sites affected by beaver activities. All surveys were flown with the Alfred Wegener Institute's Polar-5 and -6 scientific airplanes at 500-1500 m altitude above terrain. The onboard sensor, the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS), a very-high-resolution multispectral camera developed by the German Aerospace Center, operated in the visible (RGB) and near-infrared (NIR) domain. From the comprehensive collection of multiple TB of gathered data, super-high-resolution (up to 7 cm/px) RGB+NIR image mosaics and stereophotogrammetric digital surface models were derived. By presenting the data and first analyses, we would like to invite the community to discuss best use for maximized benefit of the data, in order to substantially contribute to our understanding of permafrost thaw dynamics

Machine learning identifies ecological selectivity patterns across the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction occurred alongside a large swath of environmental changes that are often invoked as extinction mechanisms, even when a direct link is lacking. One way to elucidate the cause(s) of a mass extinction is to investigate extinction selectivity, as it can reveal critical information on organismic traits as key determinants of extinction and survival. Here we show that machine learning algorithms, specifically gradient boosted decision trees, can be used to identify determinants of extinction as well as to predict extinction risk. To understand which factors led to the end-Permian mass extinction during an extreme global warming event, we quantified the ecological selectivity of marine extinctions in the well-studied South China region. We find that extinction selectivity varies between different groups of organisms and that a synergy of multiple environmental stressors best explains the overall end-Permian extinction selectivity pattern. Extinction risk was greater for genera that had a low species richness, narrow bathymetric ranges limited to deep-water habitats, a stationary mode of life, a siliceous skeleton, or, less critically, calcitic skeletons. These selective losses directly link the extinctions to the environmental effects of rapid injections of carbon dioxide into the ocean-atmosphere system, specifically the combined effects of expanded oxygen minimum zones, rapid warming, and potentially ocean acidification